59-43 on the year. 8-4 last week. Favorites have been huge this year, but this is the week of the underdog. Home teams in CAPS.
BILLS (+3) over Texans
I have a strange feeling that the Bills beat the spread and the Texans. Texans have struggled this year to pressure, and the Bills have generated a decent pass rush.
Browns (+9.5) over BEARS
Taking the Browns on the road? I must be clinically insane. Well that’s part of it, but the reality of the Cutler honeymoon is about to set in. He is not a franchise quarterback. Only a handful of those guys exist in a given era. Right now in the NFL how many guys are franchise quarterbacks? Fewer than you think. The definition of a franchise quarterback (by my book) is a guy who can stink it up for game after game and still have his job. How many of those guys are there in the NFL right now? Let me tell you: Brady, Manning, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Warner, and Delhomme. That’s it. It is remarkable how quickly franchises will pull the plug on a guy if he’s sucking. The reality of the NFL is results. You either live on the results you are producing, or the results you’ve produced in the past.
There are two anomalies to this discussion: Jamarcus and Eli. Jamarcus has kept his job despite awful performance after awful performance. He is not producing now, nor has he ever. Potential usually can only keep you afloat so long in the NFL, and he’s defied those odds and is surviving on pure potential longer than expected. And Eli, despite his championship ring and playoff achievements, would get the plug pulled if he kept mailing it in.
The point is, Cutler is not a franchise quarterback. Not yet at least. He can’t have ugly performance after ugly performance and expect to have that job on lock down.
Seahawks (+9.5) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys are starting to look mighty fine on the offensive end, but don’t be fooled – this team is far from complete. Miles Austin is a nice side story for the Cowboys, but after week 1 it’s best to rely on the fact that the Cowboys are inconsistent, even on offense. Whether or not they win or lose is beyond me, but 9.5 is enough for me to take Seattle.
LIONS (even) over Rams
I know the Lions have a title, but the Rams might take it from them. How are the Lions not a favorite at home on this one? I’m picking against the Rams every week until they beat the spread.
49ers (+12) over COLTS
Every year the undefeated team stumbles against a middle tier team. This could be it. If not, 12 points is enough to give the dogs a good chance here.
Dolphins (+3) over JETS
I have to apologize for knocking on the wildcat earlier this season because it isn’t the same old smoke ‘n mirrors from last year. This is a new and revised system. This isn’t a gimmick, it’s nearly half of their snaps. Whenever a different team uses it, it’s a gimmick. The Fins playbook focuses on this. This is a great system to use when you aren’t loaded on star players. Love the Fins this year.
Giants (even) over EAGLES
Giants in a two game slide should bounce back in this one. I still think they win that division with some breathing room. Eagles will bring it this game, as they usually do in divisional games. Interesting though that it went from zero, to +2, to +1, to zero again for the Giants.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Broncos
Vegas, and everyone else out there, believes this to be the ending point of the Broncos run. Ravens win and cover. Side note, Ray Rice might be the second most electric running back in the league right now.
Jaguars (+3) over TITANS
I’m going to pick against the Titans until they win a game.
Raiders (+16.5) over CHARGERS
The Raider line is starting to get where it needs to be. Their first match up was surprisingly close. The sense of urgency is high for this Bolts team as the Broncos won their head to head match up and have an iron grip on the division. If they are going to make the playoffs they better start making moves. .500 ball won’t cut it like it did last year.
PACKERS (-3) over Vikings
A lot of media hype here. So I won’t write anything.
Panthers (+10) over CARDINALS
The Cardinals are looking like they did in last season’s postseason. This will come to a halt this week. I suspect a Warner injury in the coming weeks.
SAINTS (-10) over Falcons
I will pick the Saints every week until they lose. They’re that good. Not only did they come back to win last week against the Dolphins, but they covered the spread in dramatic fashion. Ridiculously good team right now.
If this isn’t convincing, I don’t know what is. Brees is not human.
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